Ethereum recently faced a rejection at the significant $4K price level, followed by a sharp 25% decline. The price is now testing key support at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, around $2,972, and has found some stabilization at this level. If Ethereum successfully holds this support, a potential rebound towards the $3.5K resistance could be expected in the medium term. However, failure to sustain this support could lead Ethereum to test lower levels, with the next major support lying around $2.8K.
Daily Chart Analysis
On the daily chart, Ethereum briefly surpassed the psychological $4K resistance, but this move was met with strong selling pressure, causing a sharp retracement. The correction has taken the price back toward the 0.5 ($3,190) and 0.618 ($2,972) Fibonacci retracement levels. These levels are critical support areas that have historically attracted substantial buying interest, which could trigger a short-term recovery.
However, if Ethereum fails to hold the support within this range, a deeper correction toward the $2.8K region is likely. The $3.5K level remains an important near-term target if Ethereum successfully rebounds from the current levels. The relative strength index (RSI) is showing neutral conditions, suggesting a potential for consolidation or a slow reversal rather than a rapid surge.
4-Hour Chart Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum encountered significant resistance around the $4K mark, leading to a corrective move. The recent RSI behavior shows a bearish divergence, suggesting weakening momentum after the initial rejection at $4K. Currently, Ethereum is finding support at the $3K level, which is crucial for determining the next phase of price action. If Ethereum manages to hold this support, it could trigger a consolidation phase within the $3K to $3.5K range.
If the price breaks below the $3K support level, further downside risks emerge, with the next key level being $2.8K. A solid break below $2.8K would open the door for further declines toward the $2.5K region.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $3.5K, $4K
- Support: $3K, $2.8K, $2.5K
Market Sentiment and On-Chain Data
Ethereum’s futures market funding rates have been cooling off after an initial surge in sentiment when Ethereum briefly surpassed $4K. The funding rate, which had been positive, has started to decline as the price retraced, indicating a slowdown in bullish momentum. However, the funding rate is still above neutral, suggesting that some optimism remains in the market.
The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has been fluctuating, but with values above 1, it reflects that buyers are still in control, albeit less aggressively than before. If this trend continues, it could suggest a recovery towards the $3.5K level as the market stabilizes.
Prediction for Ethereum’s Price:
- Short-term scenario (1-2 weeks): Ethereum is likely to face consolidation within the $2,972–$3.5K range. A rebound from the support zone at $2,972 could lead to a gradual rise toward the $3.5K resistance, but this would require sustained buying pressure. Failure to hold $2,972 could push the price further toward the $2.8K region.
- Medium-term scenario (2-4 weeks): If Ethereum maintains support at $2,972, it could target the $3.5K zone, with a potential breakout above $3.5K opening the door to the $4K region again. A failure to break through $3.5K would likely result in further consolidation or a slight pullback.
- Long-term scenario (4-8 weeks): If Ethereum sees continued weakness and breaks below $2.8K, further downside towards $2.5K is likely. However, a sustained recovery could lead to Ethereum retesting the $4K resistance.
